Planning is an operations problem.

Lavi Sahu. Fourteen years across SAP IBP, o9, Kinaxis, OMP and S&OP — pharma cold chain, FMCG, energy. I build the analysis behind planning decisions: resilience, demand quality, integrated business planning. Reproducible, from first principles. Increasingly: applied AI in planning workflows.

Years planning

Platforms

Industries deep

20+

Programs delivered

▸ DEMAND SIGNALSYNTHETIC

smooth61%

erratic22%

lumpy12%

intermit5%

ADI / CV² segmentation · Syntetos–Boylan–Croston cutoffs

▸ FVA MONITORSYNTHETIC

forecast actual

+6.2FVA pts vs naïve

18.4%MAPE

−1.2%Bias

▸ WORK/01 · RESILIENCETTR/TTS

Supply Chain Resilience

Which node, if it fails, hurts most — and for how long?

MethodTime-to-Recover vs Time-to-Survive stress testing, in the Simchi-Levi tradition. Fail every node on schedule; measure exposure where TTS < TTR.

OutputA ranked map of structural fragility — which failures the network absorbs, and which it can't.

github.com/LaviSahu/supply-chain-resilience

▸ WORK/02 · DEMAND DXFVA · ADI/CV²

Demand Planning Diagnostics

Is our forecast actually adding value — and where is it worst?

MethodForecast Value Added (Gilliland) against a naïve baseline, crossed with ADI/CV² demand segmentation (Syntetos–Boylan–Croston).

OutputWhere planner touches help, where they hurt, and which demand classes deserve which method. Every number computed, not asserted.

github.com/LaviSahu/demand-planning-diagnostics

▸ WORK/03 · S&OPRCCP

S&OP Integrated Planning

Base vs upside vs constrained — what do we commit, and what does it cost?

MethodS&OP / IBP scenario reconciliation with rough-cut capacity checks, in the Wallace / Oliver Wight tradition.

OutputOne commit number per cycle, with the cost of each alternative stated — the plan as a decision, not a spreadsheet.

github.com/LaviSahu/sop-integrated-planning

▸ EVENT LOGSTREAMING · SYNTHETIC

ALL EVENTS SIMULATED · DETERMINISTIC SEED 0x00000000

▸ NODE STATUSSTRESS HARNESS

Node	TTR	TTS	State
NAG-01	4d	11d	OK
CHE-02	6d	9d	OK
BLR-DC	11d	8d	EXPOSED
HYD-03	7d	7d	WATCH
PNQ-XD	3d	12d	OK

Rule: TTS < TTR → the network runs out before it recovers. That gap is the finding.

▸ STACKPKG

pkg list --scope=planning

sap-ibp▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮core

o9▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮scenario

kinaxis▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮concurrent

omp▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮ops

sap-apo▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮legacy

bars = depth of use, not years

▸ RUNBOOK · PRINCIPLESREV 14

Judgment over code craft. The model serves the decision, never the reverse.
Bounded claims. Say what the analysis cannot see.
Seed everything. Same inputs, same answer — reproducible or it didn't happen.
Every number computed, not asserted.
Synthetic data labelled SYNTHETIC. Including every feed on this page.
The forecast is a decision, not a prophecy.

▸ CONTACT · CHANNEL OPENRESPONSE < 48H · IST